Before we begin, I like to start with the disclaimer that I write this to share my views, not necessarily to change yours.
Now that December 15th has passed, trade discussions abound in NBA discourse and nowhere has that been more clear than for the Denver Nuggets. At 15-11, the Nuggets are standing at 6th in the west at time of writing. There are calls for trades and firings all around. Some think Michael Porter needs to be moved. Some think Michael Malone or Calvin Booth should be let go or both.
Let’s walk through some of the criticisms, analyze the context around them and discuss possibilities on how to proceed for the Nuggets. Today’s piece will be about the Nnaji contracts, the Reggie deal and why the Nuggets handed out those contracts.
The Nnaji Contract
Zeke is on a 4 year, $32M contract that is front loaded, with a player option in the final year. It also makes him the fifth highest paid player on the team behind Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon who will make $51M, $36M, $35M and $22M, respectively for the 2024-2025 season.
Why It Made Sense and Why It Didn’t
The bottom line of negatives here is that Zeke hasn’t been good in Denver for any consistent length of time. There’s a lot that I coud write about his development and usage, but the results are what they are.
The bottom line justifying it is that Zeke is now necessary for Denver to make any trade to improve the team short of breaking up their core, quality play or no. Guys like Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance Jr or others who are paid a more than the bare minimum, are only accessible because of Zeke.
“Three Second Round Picks”
There’s a lot of consternation around Calvin Booth shedding three second round picks to get off of Reggie Jackson. I want to add some context to that I think people miss. We’ve also just seen the Warriors aqcuire Dennis Schroder for three second round picks and De’Anthony Melton.
There are couple things I keep in mind when discussing this:
The second round picks Denver has are not nearly as valueable as others. Denver is likely to be top ten most years, and those second round picks that Denver can offer will be between 50 and 60 as a result. In comparison, a second round pick from a team lower in the league may be in the 30’s. Moreover, second round picks aren’t that valueable in any case.
The other aspect that I think is important to consider is what Denver needed when they signed Reggie, and what they gained by trading him away. Reggie played 82 games in a year when Jamal only played 59. He was absolutely necessary in keeping Denver afloat. That said, Russell Westbrook has been a huge upgrade for the Nuggets and it took moving on from Reggie to create space for him.
Player Options Here, There, Everwhere. Oh My!
So, why do the Nuggets hand out so many player options? Zeke Nnaji, Reggie Jackson, Dario Saric, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic all have player options. There’s also a pattern of Denver overpaying for talent when to do aqcuire or retain players in free agency.
Me, personally, I’ve been a Nuggets fan for about fifteen years now. I’ve seen it many times. Denver doesn’t get a ton of marquee free agents and when they do, they often overpay for them. I think there are a few reasons why it’s such an uphill battle:
What The Culture’s Feeling
I live in Denver. I enjoy living in Denver. For most NBA players, Denver is not the ideal city. It’s the distance from other major cities. It’s the lack of night life relative to other major cities. It’s the racial makeup of the city itself. I don’t take it personally, but I understand it as a part of what draws free agents.
What’s In It For Me?
Money isn’t the whole story either. When we talk about free agents coming to Denver, it’s also important to consider the role that can be offered. If you can offer a starting role, or otherwise a ton of opportunity, that will sway players in ways that an understanding that you may or may not play at all does not.
What’s The Verdict?
When you add in all of these factors, I think it’s important to understand that no matter who the gm is, Denver is going to be paying a premium on the market. We’re talking higher dollar values, longer deals, and player options. Unless there’s a big role that can pay off for a player on the backend, it’s unlikely the Nuggets will pick from the top of the pile on the market and even then, the players that do sign will be overpaid.
Thanks for reading. That’s all I have for today. I will be back soon with more on the Murray, Porter and Gordon deals and what they mean for Denver’s future.
Be well, be safe and cherish your loved ones!
Ray